Saturday, September 13, 2008

How Has Iran Retaliated Against The US

 After Ali Khamenei was killed, what was the first things Iran did

After Ali Khamenei was killed in the U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, Iran's first actions were essentially about keeping the state functioning, securing military command, and preparing retaliation.

Confirm Khamenei's death and announce mourning

Iranian state media officially confirmed his death in the early hours of March 1. The government declared a period of national mourning.

Prevent a leadership vacuum

Because the Supreme Leader had been killed together with several senior officials, Iran immediately needed a temporary mechanism for supreme authority. An interim Leadership Council was established, involving Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, President Masoud Pezeshkian, and Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i.

The military and IRGC continued operating

Iran did not stop functioning militarily simply because Khamenei was dead. The Revolutionary Guards and remaining command structure continued directing Iran's response. This was important because the country was already under attack.

Iran retaliated militarily

Iran launched ballistic missiles and other attacks against U.S. and allied targets in the region. The first days therefore looked less like Iran surrendering and more like Iran trying to demonstrate that killing the Supreme Leader had not paralyzed the state.

Begin the succession process

Behind the scenes, the biggest political question was: "Who replaces Khamenei?" The IRGC reportedly pushed for a rapid decision, while the constitutional mechanism involved the Assembly of Experts.

Eventually choose Mojtaba Khamenei

The succession was surprisingly quick: Mojtaba Khamenei, Ali Khamenei's son, was selected as Supreme Leader on March 8, 2026.

First country Iran retaliated against

Iran's military response started while the leadership situation was still developing. Iran didn't wait until it had chosen a new Supreme Leader before retaliating. That is one reason the IRGC's organizational structure became so important after Khamenei's death.

Iran's first retaliatory strike after the February 28, 2026 attack is Israel — together with U.S. bases across the Gulf.

Hours after the U.S.-Israeli airstrikes killed Khamenei, Iran launched simultaneous strikes on Israel (~35 ballistic missiles + drones toward Tel Aviv and central Israel), UAE (heaviest barrage: 137 ballistic missiles + 208 drones toward Dubai/Abu Dhabi), and also Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Oman (U.S. military bases across all eight countries). 

These were launched together in the first wave — there was no single "one country only" strike. But Israel was the original attacker and the primary declared target in Iran's retaliation statement.

Largest single-country target in first wave: UAE (most missiles/drones).

DateCountries TargetedMissilesDronesNotes
Feb 28, 2026 ๐Ÿš€ First WaveIsrael~35Primary target; Tel Aviv & Haifa struck
UAE~137–165~208–270Heaviest barrage; Al Dhafra Air Base
Qatar~66Al Udeid Air Base (US Centcom HQ)
Bahrain~45~9US Navy 5th Fleet HQ
Jordan~13~36US bases; follow-up waves continued
KuwaitSeveral~2Multiple US bases hit
Saudi ArabiaUp to 2Limited strikes
Iraq (Erbil)~7DozensNorthern Iraq bases
Mar 1–2, 2026Jordan / Iraq / UK (Cyprus)Additional wavesSustained strikes on US/UK facilities
Mar 3, 2026Israel (larger barrage)~65+Direct strikes toward Tel Aviv & Jerusalem

A Mix of Cheap & Expensive Drones/ Ballistic Missiles in The Early Wave

Iran used BOTH cheap drones AND a mix of cheap/expensive ballistic missiles in the very first wave — deliberately layered to maximize cost damage to the defenders.

Feb 28 First Wave - Shahed-136 (Cheap Drones)

The one-way attack drones, especially the Shahed-type drones, were relatively cheap, roughly $20,000–$50,000 each. Propeller-driven, carried roughly a 50 kg warhead and could be launched in large numbers. They are designed to overwhelm or exhaust air defenses. 

So if Iran sent, for example, 100 Shaheds, the hardware itself might cost only around $2–5 million. That's extremely cheap compared with the defensive missiles being used against them.

One of the striking economic problems for the U.S. and its allies was that a $30,000–$50,000 Iranian drone could require an interceptor costing hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars.

WeaponEst. Unit CostQuantity UsedPurpose
Shahed-136 drones$20,000 – $50,000~200–270Saturate defenses, force expensive intercepts
Other drones (Mohajer, Arash)$50K – $200KDozensRecon + decoy + secondary strike

The math: Iran spends ~$35,000 per drone** → US/Israel shoots it down with **$4M Patriot or $15M THAAD interceptor. Cost ratio = 80:1 to 400:1 in Iran's favor. This was intentional — they wanted to deplete enemy interceptors.

Older Ballistic Missiles (Medium Cost)

Older liquid-fuel designs — not cutting-edge, but proven, cheap to build, and available in thousands. They fired these in massive numbers to overwhelm defenses.

WeaponEst. Unit CostQuantity UsedPurpose
Shahab-3 / Emad / Ghadr$500K – $1.5M~200+Main barrage — reliable, available in large numbers

Advanced Missiles (Expensive, Used Carefully)

WeaponEst. Unit CostQuantity UsedPurpose
Kheibar Shekan (solid fuel, precise)~$1.5M – $2M~40–60Penetration — better accuracy, harder to intercept
Fattah-1 (hypersonic, Iran's best)~$5MVery few — held backPremium — only for highest-value/hardest targets

The Fattah-1 — Iran's most advanced missile — costs $5 million each and was NOT fired in large numbers because they had very few built. They saved their expensive missiles for later waves.

LayerWeapon TierCost% of first wave
First — SwarmShahed drones๐Ÿ’ธ Very cheap~60%
Second — BarrageShahab/Emad missiles๐Ÿ’ฐ Affordable~35%
Third — PrecisionKheibar Shekan/Fattah๐Ÿ’Ž Expensive~5%

The earliest days were overwhelmingly CHEAP drones + mid-cost older missiles — the expensive hypersonic "crown jewels" were mostly held back and used sparingly until defenses ran low.

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